AU Economics Yield Curve & One Month Treasury Bill Discussion
I’m working on a economics question and need an explanation to help me learn.
There are numerous news articles referencing the concept since it forecasts where we are in the cycle. For the discussion question, I want you to build your own yield curve and tell me what the curve is saying about the economy. Here is how to build your own yield curve.
1. Read up about yield curves in your textbook or free online sources. Your textbook has an excellent explanation.
2. A yield curve is essentially a scatter plot which you should do on Excel. The trend line of the scatter plot is the yield curve.
3. You will need to get the data from FRED. Use the most recent interest rate data. Use the following securities: (i) one month treasury bill, three month treasury bill, 6 month treasury bill, 9 months, 5-year treasury bond, and 10-year treasury bond. If you find it difficult to get the yield on the 9-month security you can leave that one out.
Note: you cannot mix the yields of corporate securities with the government securities I suggested above.
What does the scatter plot say about the economy – meaning the state of the business cycle? What is the curve saying about the state of the economy in the near future?